Trumping the Polls

February 2, 2016

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Editor’s Note: This story appeared in the December 2015 ORANGE Issue IV.

THE UPCOMING 2016 ELECTION features a diverse array of candidates from illustrious and varying backgrounds. However, one republican candidate has the whole world gripping the edge of their seats with his promise to “Make America Great Again” — Donald Trump.

Story by Aliya Conley
Illustration by Hunter Tanem

Billionaire, big business mogul and reality TV star, Trump seems like the last person who would be interested in becoming commander-in-chief. So how did someone with no political experience and who coined the phrase “you’re fired” on his reality show, “The Apprentice,” go from being simply meme-worthy to a serious front runner for the Republican Party?

Yale University management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld explains in an article for “Yale Insights,” Trump “is selling an image” that many Americans find refreshing. “Trump projects a notion of, ‘I’m in charge, I know what’s going on, you can relax,’” says Sonnenfeld.

This reassurance in the face of what many people see as a period of political and infrastructural instability, uncertainty and transition is ultimately what makes Trump so appealing. Perhaps most importantly, “despite all the bravado and grandiosity, there is an authenticity about [Trump],” says Sonnenfeld.

Although “authenticity” seems counterintuitive for a reality TV star, Trump’s candidness does resonate with voters who are fed up with the empty rhetoric of traditional politicians. Jacob Hacker, a Yale University political science professor, has been following the Trump campaign closely since its launch. “What’s striking to me is the extent to which his lack of scripted-ness, and the degree of grandiosity in his campaign, and actually, the offensive things he sometimes says, have all been interpreted as a sign of his genuineness and his fitness for office at a time when there’s a sense that politicians are distanced from reality and not willing to say what they believe,” says Hacker in an interview for “Yale Insights.”

The supreme irony of Trump’s image is that, in spite of his wealth and fame, he comes across as the candidate most in-touch with the hopes and desires of the general public. Trump’s departure from and explicit condemnation of “political correctness” allows him to give the impression he is not merely a political pawn but someone working autonomously.

Images aside, what is the likelihood that Trump could actually win the Republican nomination, and who are his supporters? National and state polls show Trump leading with support from working class and retired Republicans. Is that enough to win an election? Having stepped on countless toes on the issue of immigration, it seems as though Trump is creating more and more opposition among Latino voters. Trump’s controversial immigration plan consists of tripling the number of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, a “mandatory return of all alien criminals” and building a physical wall along the US-Mexico border. In addition, Trump argues that the wall should be paid for by the Mexican government.

The sensationalization of the Trump campaign has Democrats and Republicans alike concerned regarding the future of the Republican party and a deepening divide between liberal and conservative America. However, Hacker, like many other political analysts, is doubtful that Trump’s success will last past the Republican primary. “Trump really does not have many established positions. He has so far benefited enormously from the fact that he’s the story himself. The people who study politics know that the odds are very much against him,” says Hacker.” Essentially, Trump’s popularity may be an illusion created by the media and not a true reflection of the Republican majority.

Most scholars and politicians are skeptical of Trump becoming a tangible threat. They perceive his popularity to be the product of the Republican minority and sensationalized media coverage. But what does Trump’s popularity in the 2016 election cycle mean for the future of the Republican Party? That’s a question political scientists and the media have yet to grapple with. However, in this election, one thing is clear: Americans aren’t quite ready to say “you’re fired” to Donald Trump.